With the pandemic induced havoc, how is it that the stock market is not down more? And what effect will the economic downturn have on the valuation of startups? In mid-April, when the Dow Industrials index was around 24,000, a friend with a predictive model for public stocks told me…

Stock analysts say that expectations for future performance define a company’s valuation, and if the market seems disconnected from the state of the economy, it’s because investors are looking ahead. This suggests broadly shared clairvoyance among investors, something that eludes business and public policy leaders. This concept equation offers another…

“What’s a simple definition of complexity theory?” I asked that of someone involved in the study of it. He replied, “It’s the study of how simple changes affect complex systems.” People often feel powerless to affect complex systems. But such systems are dynamic; they change if sufficient pressure is applied…

Payroll taxes are in the news. For weeks, President Donald Trump said he wanted to defer the collection of employee portion of the Social Security portion of the payroll tax in order to provide pandemic-related economic relief to workers. The Congress didn’t agree, so he issued an executive order to…

With the pandemic induced havoc, how is that the stock market is not down more? And what effect will the economic downturn have on the valuation of startups? In mid-April, when the Dow Industrials index was around 24,000, a friend with a predictive model for public stocks told me the…